US RECESSION : A new model

The figure 1 above ( Woody Brock www.sendinc.com ) offers a simple way of understanding what killed growth in the US economy. The variables shown remind us of the old adage that “History rhymes, but does not repeat”.

More specifically, the contents of the figure will disturb those seeking to identify today’s US recession with earlier ones in 2001 or 1991 or 1981 or 1973 or even 1931. No such identification is possible since the three developments highlighted in the chart and their improbable synergies are different from anything we have seen before. This sui generic nature of today’s crisis explains why traditional theories of recessions and “debt super-cycles” possess little explanatory and predictive power.

For example, according to standard business cycle theory, “pent-up demand” on the part of consumers is a principal driver of recovery—but it will not be this time around. The shift towards less consumption and more savings due to the implosion of household balance sheets and to demographics is most probably permanent. If so, this bodes poorly for hopes of a pent-updemand-driven recovery.