BIG OIL

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects oil to average about $43 a barrel in 2009, while some Wall Street energy bulls consider $60 more likely. If either forecast is right, petro stocks will benefit later this year. If on the other hand, crude slides below its current level, as some Street bears expect, the shares could stumble further. Of course, few oil-price prognosticators have covered themselves in glory over the past year, and there’s no reason to assume that their forecasting skills have improved. Especially since just where the price will go has much to do with another great unknown: how long the global recession lasts and how strong the subsequent recovery will be.

But a recovery will come eventually, and higher oil prices almost surely will follow. The most enthusiastic bulls even see them returning to $100 within a few years. That’s why, over the next few months, patient investors would do well to buy the stocks of the best-positioned companies with the strongest finances and best long-term outlooks.

Even if Obama´s administration pushes for alternative Energies hard, Big Oil will stay around for a while.