Archive for June, 2011

UE Periphery : CDS´s at record high again

 

From Reuters: “The cost of insuring Greek government debt against default rose to a record high of 1,600 basis points on Monday, hit by concerns that any second rescue of Greece will trigger a credit event or at least multi-notch rating downgrade of its debt. Five-year credit default swaps (CDS) on Greek government debt rose 58 bps on the day to 1,600 bps, according to data monitor Markit.  The Markit iTraxx index of western European sovereign CDS was up 9 bps on the day at 220 bps, near a record high of 221 bps hit on January 10. Portuguese CDS were up 40 bps at 773 bps, while Irish CDS were 33 bps higher at 745 bps, both at record highs. Spanish CDS were up 13 bps at 289 bps.”

Congratulations Political “Elite” for helping so much in finding answers !!!

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SPAIN: On the Brink, again

 

Let´s see what happens with the Support for IBEX and the resistance for the 10 Y Bono.

With € under pressure and Greece looking very week, we are not sure that Spain can handle the storm.

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CATALONIA : Defies Madrid on Deficit

By FT:

“The economically important Spanish region of Catalonia has again defied the central government over budget targets and said its deficit for this year would reach €5.4bn or nearly 2.7 per cent of gross domestic product, double the official limit of 1.3 per cent.

Andreu Mas-Colell, Catalan finance minister, made the announcement in the regional parliament shortly after the government in Madrid had boasted of a sharp fall in the central deficit in the first four months of the year.

Investors in eurozone sovereign bond markets are closely watching Spain’s efforts to reduce its overall public sector deficit because some fear it could be forced to follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal in seeking a bail-out from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund if it cannot control its finances.

Of the 17 autonomous regions, Catalonia is particularly important because its economy is as large as Portugal’s.

Mr Mas-Colell, a renowned academic economist chosen for the finance portfolio by the Catalan nationalist government elected six months ago, said the regional deficit would fall sharply from that of 2010, was marked by “austerity and credibility” and could even drop below the official target if the central government released funds owing to the region.

Spanish ministers have rejected these demands and are insisting on compliance with central targets.

They are frustrated to find that last year’s pattern, in which the central government cut its deficit more than forecast while many regions overspent, is being repeated in the current year – when the total public deficit is to be reduced sharply to 6 per cent of GDP from 9.3 per cent in 2010.

Elena Salgado, Spanish finance minister, on Tuesday released figures showing that the central deficit fell by more than half in the first four months of this year, compared with the same period last year, to €2.45bn, with tax revenues rising and spending reduced.

She said: “We are on absolutely the right course to meet the target we set,” adding that Spain’s ratio of accumulated public debt to GDP, already one of the lowest among developed economies, would meet or fall slightly below the targeted 68.7 per cent this year.

However, economists warned that deficit figures in the early months of the year gave little insight into the eventual outcome.

Edward Hugh, a Barcelona-based economist, said: “There has been overspending in the pre-election period.“They are going to have to try to adjust for that in the second half, and that will have effects on the economy.””

As usual Ms Salgado stills in WONDERLAND

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